Last year, growth in the UK housing market was held back by a mix of factors. Falling stamp duty thresholds in March 2025 made moving more expensive, while buyers and sellers remained cautious ahead of the late 2025 Autumn Budget. On top of that, higher mortgage rates added another layer of hesitation.
However, as we moved into early 2026, there was a noticeable shift in sentiment. Many property experts and lenders began predicting modest house price growth in 2026, driven by falling inflation and the expectation that interest rates would start to come down.
Major lenders and estate agents were forecasting steady progress rather than dramatic increases. Estate agency Hamptons expected property values to grow by 2.5% by Q4, while Halifax predicted a rise of between 1% and 3%. Savills forecast a 2% increase and, looking further ahead, suggested stronger growth between 2027 and 2030 – with annual rises of 4%, 5%, 5.5% and 4% respectively. This longer-term outlook is supported by projected wage growth of 22% between 2025 and 2029, alongside improving economic conditions.
Nationwide’s House Price Review, published in December 2025, also pointed to a positive outlook, suggesting UK house prices could rise between 2% and 4% in 2026. This was largely based on the expectation that mortgage rates would ease and wage growth would continue to outpace property price increases.
A Changing Picture: Mortgage Rates and Market Uncertainty
That said, the UK property market is currently sending out some mixed signals. Mortgage rates have started to creep up again, and ongoing global uncertainty – particularly events in the Middle East – is adding volatility.
Under normal circumstances, slowing inflation, low growth and rising unemployment would encourage the Bank of England to reduce interest rates, helping to bring down mortgage costs. But these aren’t typical conditions. The conflict involving Iran has contributed to a sharp rise in mortgage rates, which could influence house prices in the months ahead.
For example, the average two-year fixed rate rose from 4.83% on 2 March to 5.9% by 8 April – its highest level since July 2024. Meanwhile, the average five-year fix increased from 4.95% to 5.78% over the same period.
What the Latest House Price Indexes Are Saying
One reason the market feels uncertain right now is that the main UK house price indexes don’t all tell the same story.
HM Land Registry UK House Price Index
Often considered the most reliable measure, HM Land Registry data, which includes both cash and mortgage purchases, is slightly delayed. The latest figures (released March 2026) show annual house price growth slowing from 1.9% in December 2025 to 1.3% in January 2026. On a monthly basis, prices dipped by 0.3%, putting the average UK house price at £268,421.
🔗 https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi/
Nationwide House Price Index
Nationwide’s most recent data shows a more upbeat picture, with prices rising by 0.9% in the month to March. This puts the average UK house price at £277,186 – suggesting some resilience in the market.
🔗 https://www.nationwide.co.uk/media/hpi/reports/uk-house-price-growth-picks-up-in-march
Halifax House Price Index
In contrast, Halifax reported a 0.5% drop in house prices between February and March, bringing the average down to £299,677. The lender linked this decline to rising mortgage rates and growing uncertainty around whether interest rates will fall this year.
🔗 https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/march-2026-halifax-house-price-index.pdf
Rightmove House Price Index
Unlike Nationwide and Halifax’s indexes, which are based on the building society and bank’s valuations at the mortgage-approval stage, Rightmove’s HPI is based on asking prices. According to their latest data, the average UK property asking price is £371,042 (March 2026), up from £368,019 in February.
🔗 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/
Zoopla House Price Index
The Zoopla house price index uses sold prices, mortgage valuations, and data for agreed sales to calculate house prices for any given month. The property portal’s latest index said the average UK house price is £270,500 as of February 2026, which is up from £269,900 in January 2026. It also said buyer demand in March was down by 13% year-on-year due to rising mortgage rates and uncertainty over where the Middle East conflict is headed.
🔗 https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/
Market Sentiment: What Surveyors Are Seeing
As well as the five main House Price Indexes released on a regular basis, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) also publishes a monthly Residential Market Survey. The report generates net balance scores between -100 and +100 in response to a series of questions put to its members (estate agents and surveyors) about how the housing market has changed. Recent RICS reports had suggested the housing market is showing signs of “tentative recovery,” but now members are warning that confidence is stalling due to tensions in the Gulf. Surveyors have turned more negative on buyer demand and sales expectations, although their February assessment was that house prices were broadly flat at the national level, with the headline price net balance registering -12%. There are big regional differences, though, with surveyors in London at -40%, the Southeast at -24% and East Anglia at -26% recording the greater downward forecasts, while those in Northern Ireland, Scotland and the Northwest of England are still reporting positive price forecasts. And despite all the confusion, they say the sentiment over 12 months remains positive, with a net balance of +33% expecting prices to edge upwards.
🔗 https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey
While short-term uncertainty around mortgage rates and global events is creating mixed signals, the broader outlook for the UK housing market in 2026 remains cautiously positive.
For buyers and sellers alike, this is less about dramatic swings and more about steady movement – with opportunities still very much present for those taking a longer-term view.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling in this ever-changing market, our team at R&H Auctions are here to guide you every step of the way – with expert insight, local knowledge, and a straightforward approach that helps you make confident decisions.
